Traders Forex Reviews Trading Plan
22.10.202113: 10 Forex Analytical Reviews: EUR / USD: Plan for the American session October 22 (analysis of the morning transactions). Euro returned to the middle of the canal. Under the skill sight Level 1.1643
Relevance to 13:00 2021-10-23 UTC + 2 To open the long position on EURUSD: In the first half, one signal for the sale of euro was formed. Let’s look at the 5-minute schedule and look at the entry point. In its morning forecast, I paid attention to resistance 1.1643 and advised making decisions from him. Diverse statistics on activity in the eurozone countries did not allow the bulls to break above 1.1643, which led to the formation of a false breakdown. However, the maximum that has so far turned out to be seen is a 10-point downward movement. While trading will be conducted below this range, one can expect to work out the signal. From a technical point of view, nothing has changed in the afternoon. During the American session we are waiting for similar data on activity in the production sector and the United States services industry. Good data can lead to a return of pressure on the US dollar, so the implementation of the morning signal for sale is not ruled out. As I noted in the morning forecast, in order to somehow expect a further recovery of EUR/USD, it is necessary to regain control of the average border of the side channel 1.1643, which could not be done in the morning. Only a breakthrough and fixation above this range, as well as its reverse test from top to bottom, form a signal for the purchase of euros, which will allow see the recovery to the upper boundary of the channel – 1.1666. Only a breakthrough in this area will indicate the continuation of the bullish scenario in a pair observed from the middle of this month. Test 1.1666 from top to bottom will open a direct road to the area of the 17th figure, where I recommend fixing profit. The more distant goal remains the area of 1.1716. If the steam pressure is returned, it will be no less important for the bulls to protect the lower boundary of the side channel 1.1618. The formation of a false breakdown there forms a good entry point to long positions. In case of absence at this level, I advise you to postpone purchases to the area of 1.1593, or even lower – to a minimum of 1.1573 and only on the basis of a bounce of 15-20 points. To open short positions on EURUSD is required: Sellers managed to repel the resistance of 1.1643 and rely on strong fundamental data on the American economy. While trade will be conducted below this range, you can wait for the euro to fall. Any additional formation of a false breakdown on 1.1643 will go to the “piggy bank” to sellers – an example to this come yesterday’s sales signals, which I analyzed in detail in the morning review. An equally important goal for bears will be to return to the lower boundary of the side channel 1.1618. A break and test of this level from the bottom up will generate a signal to open new short positions and to demolish the stop orders of buyers located below. This will quickly dump EUR/USD by 1.1593 and open a direct road to 1.1673, where I recommend fixing profit. The further goal will be the region 1.1542. The test of this range will mean resume bear market by euro. In the scenario of no sellers at 1.1643, it is best to postpone sales to the upper limit of channel 1.1666, and open short positions immediately for a rebound in the expectation of a downward correction of 15-20 points can be from a larger maximum of 1.1691. I recommend you read: The COT report (Commitment of Traders) for October 12 recorded an increase in both short and long positions, but the former turned out to be more, which slightly reduced the negative delta. Political problems in the United States The United States of America is resolved, and the latest fundamental reports do not stop pleasing traders, which indicates that the US economy continues to recover at a good pace. The fact that the Federal Reserve is already seriously considering curtailing the bond buying program is no longer news that could help dollar buyers in the moment. But the fact that representatives of the European Central Bank began to express concern about the growth rate of inflation, even if not in this like colleagues at the Fed – all this allows the European currency to begin to gradually win back positions. This trend may continue in the future, especially in the case of strong statistics on the European economy. However, larger medium-term demand for risk assets will remain limited due to the waiting position of the European Central Bank. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions rose from a level of 196,819 to a level of 202,512, while short non-commercial positions jumped from a level of 219,153 up to 220,910. At the end of the week, the total non-profit net position increased slightly and amounted to -18 398 against -22 334. The weekly closing price dropped to 1.1553 versus 1.1616. Indicator signals: Moving average Trading is conducted around 30 and 50 day moving average, which indicates a confrontation between buyers and sellers. Note: Period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1. Bollinger Bands Breaking the upper limit of the indicator in area 1.1645 will lead to an instant recovery of the pair. In case of pair reduction, the lower limit of the indicator in area 1.1618 will be supported. Description of indicators Moving average determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked green. Moving Average Convergence/Divergence Indicator (MACD) Fast EMA Period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9Bollinger Bands. Period 20 Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-profit traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the summary short open position of non-commercial traders. The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders. * The presented market analysis is informative and is not a guide to the transaction. Respectfully, Analyst InsaForex Maxim Magdalinin © 2007-2021