Forecast for the week September 26 – September 30:
#NQ100:
Index of high -tech American NQ100 Corporations is located near a two -year minimum and in a new five -day, I expect a continuation of the following trend. Firstly, the US Federal Reserve has recently raised the discount rate by 0.75 percentage points. up to 3.25% and promised to increase the rate in 4 quarter to 4.5%. A strong increase in bets will lead to an increase in the costs of borrowed capital for corporations and thereby reduce their profits, which is negative for the value of shares. Secondly, this week the US Treasury Department will place treasury bonds in the amount of $ 72.5 billion, which will reduce dollar liquidity surplus in the financial system and will also strengthen the sale of shares. The ending of the quarter will be the holidays for the “bears”.
Trading recommendation: Sell 11333/11471 and Take Profit 11000.
#brent: 1 01 , which was somewhat formed on the Black Blean market, which was some strong impact on the course of trading. Firstly, the last For two weeks we see a strong reduction in dollar liquidity in the financial system due to operations of the US and the Federal Reserve Breedy and the Fed, which is negative for oil. Liquidity will also decrease in the new five -day liquidation. Secondly, the progress of the Iranian nuclear transaction is still not visible and a number of senior officials of the US State Department say that it will be difficult to reach consensus in the near future, which means that Tehran will not be able to increase black gold exports, which is favorable for oil prices . Thirdly, in the USA it began Hysteries on the rapid reduction of the strategic oil reserve, which, according to a number of congressmen, must be quickly restored. The current oil prices are now acceptable in order to start buying black gold in the reserve, which can support the quotes. Trade recommendation: Flat 81.90 – 85.00. 10100 BTCUSD: growth of the nearest levels of resistance is advisable to use to open the SELL positions in the calculation for continuation descending trend. Bitcoin historically correlates with the dynamics of dollar liquidity in the banking system, and liquidity can be greatly reduced to the new five -day liquidation. The US Treasury at the end of the week will place treasury bonds in the amount of $ 72.5 billion. The Fedusterv should reduce the volume of treasury bonds on its balance of $ 39 billion in the framework of the quantitative tightening program. Thus, the reduction of dollar liquidity will exceed $ 111 billion, which is a large indicator and will lead to a decrease Bitcoin quotes. This week I expect to update the minimum of the current year and testing the mark 17570. Trading recommendation: Sell 19100/20550 and Take Profit 17570. 