Forecast for the week December 26 – December 30:
#SP500:
will we see the Santa Claus rally this year? This unique seasonal pattern of the American stock market was first discovered by Yel Hirsch in 1972. Hirsch defined the period as the last five trading days of the year plus the first two trading days of the New Year. In my opinion, the chances of a positive outcome are quite high, since Friday statistics from the University of Michigan indicate a decrease in inflation expectations In the American economy, which is positive for the growth of risk assets, which include securities. Annual inflation expectations decreased from 4.9% to 4.4%, which further convinces the traders of their rightness, since they are waiting for a decrease in the interest rate of the US Federal Reserve in the second half of next year. For the past six years, Santa Claus rally has been observed in the markets and this time I expect a similar trend.
Trading recommendation: Buy 3806/3722 and Take Profit 4000.
#BRANT:
It is advisable to use quotes to the nearest support levels to open the Buy position for two reasons. Firstly, in the commodity market we see a good demand in the segment of industrial and precious metals, which is positive for energy, since it is from metals that trends in the market usually begin. An important element here is copper, which is traded at a half -year maximum. Secondly, Russia plans to reduce oil production by 5-7%, and hydrocarbons can be reduced by 10%, which is also positive for growth of oil prices. Russia is such a step in response to the “price ceiling”, which was established in early December in the European Union and G-7. Since demand in the world market was not reduced, even despite coronavirus restrictions in China, and the proposal will be reduced, such an imbalance. The traders will reassemble the traders to buy oil contracts.
Trading recommendation: Buy 84.07/81.75 and Take Profit 87.71.
BTCUSD:
10100
“FLECTION OF THE BOOD. Bitcoin dynamics in recent days. In a new five -day cryptocurrency can demonstrate a slight decrease against the background of the growth of the real profitability of American government bonds. The inflationary expectations of the population in the United States decreased in December, while the nominal profitability of the treasury bonds increased slightly, which led to a good increase in real profitability. In such periods, investors prefer to reduce the shares of cryptocurrencies in their investment portfolios, while I do not expect strong Bitcoin sales, Since many traders are now on Christmas holidays.
Trade recommendation: Sell 17630/18357 and Take Profit 16369.