USDRUB – 74-75?

A new OPEC deal and even an “oil deal” and a series of verbal interventions in favor of oil prices could be a reason to strengthen the ruble in April. The possible conclusion of an agreement to cut oil production by 10 million barrels per day in 2q2020, together with the normalisation of the global economy, are strong arguments for reviving Brent to $40-45 in the current quarter. The mere fact of constructive negotiations, in particular the presence of the United States, Norway, Canada, Mexico and other countries at OPEC talks on Thursday, April 9, assumes Brent quotations near $35 per barrel and USDRUB below 77. The strengthening of the ruble in the coming weeks may also be linked to an improvement in risk appetite or a revival of global stock markets in the context of improved statistics on coronavirus in Europe, as well as the start of discussions on plans to exit quarantine and restart the global economy in May. Italy yesterday recorded the lowest number of daily deaths in the last two weeks, in Germany the mortality rate due to coronavirus falls for the third day, Spain shows signs of stabilization of the situation.  As before, support for the ruble will continue to come from the currency interventions of the Bank of Russia, which in April in total can amount to about 10 billion rubles per day. CBR’s comments on a possible interest rate cut in the future (perhaps as early as 2020) are also for both the FCO and the ruble. From the point of view of technical analysis, the USDRUB daily chart shows a reversal in the value of the technical analysis “double top” of 77.50-81, the implementation of which involves a decrease in the value of the dollar by the value of this range (3.5 rubles) towards 74. USDRUB (Day) Trading in financial markets involves increased risk. This material is not a recommendation or offer of action (buying or selling any assets or tools) and is provided for research purposes only.